Capital Markets

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January 31, 2019

2019 Market Outlook

The themes and risks expressed in this presentation have been gathered across various firms on Wall Street. They do not represent our opinions or forecast for the markets. However, they are interesting, and the data does further inform some of our decision making. We hope you find it interesting as well.


  1. Economic growth is slowing but expected to still be positive
  2. Central Bank action – how aggressive will the Fed be, and can they avoid a recession? What is expected of the non-U.S. Central Bank action, particularly in Europe?
  3. Geopolitics and protectionism are likely to drive volatility – trade disputes, U.S. politics, populist parties in office across Europe, uncertainty over BREXIT

Since the 1920’s, there have been 20 episodes of price to earnings ratio declines of 20% or more. In 15 of these 20 episodes, U.S. equity market returns were positive over the next 12 months. Based on historical stats, there is a good chance we could see positive returns in 2019. In general, there seems to be greater outlook for the U.S. stock market than the developed international stock market. There also seems to be enthusiasm for the emerging markets due to their attractive valuations and robust earnings growth. Increasing vulnerabilities in the credit market are of concern, heightening the attractiveness of short-term government bonds.

We encourage you to click here to explore this carefully compiled presentation. It certainly will provide some interesting discussion points for your next investment portfolio review with your investment advisor. Enjoy!

The Allium Team