Capital Markets

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October 29, 2021

Capital Markets Review as of September 30, 2021

Economic expansion continued in the third quarter, but supply disruptions weighed on its momentum. Returns were relatively flat to negative for the quarter (U.S.Stocks, +0.6%, International Stocks, (-0.4%), and U.S. Bonds, +0.1%).Commodities are performing the best year to date (+29.1%), supported by solid industrial demand and restrained production. Emerging markets pulled back this quarter (-8.1%) due to concerns around China.

We believe the U.S. is in a mid-cycle expansion phase. You might expect healthy volatility in this phase, even meaningful drawdowns, but historically this volatility has been relatively short-lived. You have probably noticed some of this volatility year-to-date.

Things we expect to impact the markets in the near-term:

- Continued vaccination progress globally, varied by region

- China’s deceleration and regulatory tightening impacting global growth

- Supply chain issues, high backlogs and depleted inventories keeping inflation elevated for some time

While inflation and mid-cycle economic expansion might lead us to tilt towards risk assets, we believe diversification and disciplined rebalancing are critical to managing risk.

Click here to view the full Capital Markets Review.